Stakes in Tuesday's primaries will be particularly high for Republican S.C. Gov. Henry McMaster and Democratic state Rep. James Smith.
Both need to avoid a runoff, political observers say.
McMaster is the de facto Republican incumbent, and Smith is seen as the golden boy of the S.C. Democratic establishment.
Runoffs, historically, are not kind to incumbents. The fact that an incumbent like McMaster might be dragged into one means at least half of primary voters will have rejected the GOP establishment, said College of Charleston political scientist Gibbs Knotts.
"For those who just want change, it could be trouble for McMaster because he is an establishment politician who has been involved in South Carolina politics" for decades, Knotts said.
The same goes for Democrat Smith.
If they're pulled into runoffs, Smith and McMaster risk their challengers and supporters uniting to buck the establishment, Knotts said.
McMaster is seeking his first full term in office. The Richland Republican became governor in January 2017 after then-Gov. Nikki Haley resigned to become U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.
Recent polls[1] have shown McMaster leading his primary challengers. But surveys also show a majority of likely primary voters do not support him.
No sitting governor from either party ever has been forced into a runoff during the modern era of S.C. politics. However, McMaster acknowledged Thursday in Anderson that a runoff is likely, saying it is difficult for a candidate to win 50 percent-plus-one of the vote in a five-way primary.
And polling from Michigan-based Target Insyght[2] showed nearly half of S.C. Democratic primary voters were undecided or unaware of the candidates in the three-way
