Maine’s 2nd Congressional District should be a Republican stronghold, based on one line of thinking in the Democratic Party. After the 2016 election, one party postmortem suggested Democrats focus their energy on districts that are more urban, educated and diverse.The Maine 2nd is 72 percent rural, ranking only behind Kentucky-5 as the most rural district in the country by percentage of population. It’s 95 percent white. And only 21.6 percent of its residents hold a bachelor’s degree, ranking 314th out of 435 districts. [1]
And yet the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both have it ranked only as “Leans Republican,” just one tick from “Toss-up.” The district voted for Barack Obama in 2008 (55/43) and 2012 (53/44) before flipping for Donald Trump in 2016 (51/41). It was represented by moderate Republican and future U.S. Senator Olympia Snowe from 1979 to 1995, then by Democrats John Baldacci and Mike Michaud from 1995 until 2015.
The current incumbent is U.S. Representative Bruce Poliquin, a native of Waterville, Maine. Poliquin ran unsuccessfully for the Republican nomination for governor in 2010, was elected by the Legislature as state treasurer in 2010, and ran unsuccessfully for the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate in 2012. He won election as the 2nd District’s member of Congress in 2014 by defeating Democratic State Senator Emily Cain, and he won again in the rematch in 2016.
“He won both of those races relatively easily, so he’s certainly favored to win reelection,” said Mark Brewer, a political science professor at the University of Maine. “That being said, both the Democrats and Republicans have already reserved
