When Speaker of the House Paul Ryan announced he was bailing on his GOP buddies and leaving politics after the next election, I thought of Rev. Johnson from “Blazing Saddles” who, having had the “Good Book” shot out of his hand, leaned over to Sheriff Bart and said: “Son, you’re on your own.”
Could it be, however, that like Rev. Johnson, I was too hasty? That there is a chance for the Republicans to escape what appears to be certain doom? If they do, it will be for the same reason Cleavon Little’s Sheriff Bart escaped the racists of Rock Ridge: his opponents’ stupidity.
I cannot overstate how awful the numbers are for the GOP as we approach the November midterms, starting with history: Since 1980, the party controlling the White House has nearly always gotten (as President Obama put it in 2010) “a shellacking” in their first term midterms.
Reagan’s Republicans lost 26 seats in 1982. Clinton’s Democrats lost 54 seats. And Obama’s first two years wiped out 63 Democrats in the Tea Party wave.
So even in normal political conditions, Republicans would face a bleak November. And in the Trump era, things are far from normal.
Bill Clinton’s approval-rating low point was 37 percent. Obama’s was 38 percent. That’s Trump’s on a good day.
And then there’s the electoral record since Trump took office. Democrats have flipped 43 Republican-held legislative seats at the state and federal level since Trump’s win. Republicans have flipped four (including state Sen. Dean Tran of Fitchburg). And that’s on top of the 37 congressional Republicans (and counting) who aren’t running for re-election.
“OK, Michael, so where’s this good news? This glimmer of hope?” you ask. Hey — I didn’t say the news was good. It’s just looking not-quite-so-bad.
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